Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Predictive process mapping for laser powder bed fusion: A review of existing analytical solutions

One of the main challenges in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process is making dense and defect-free components. These porosity defects are dependent upon the melt pool geometry and the processing conditions. Power-velocity (PV) processing maps can aid in visualizing the effects of LPBF processing variables and mapping different defect regimes such as lack-of-fusion, under-melting, balling, and keyholing. This work presents an assessment of existing analytical equations and models that provide an estimate of the melt pool geometry as a function of material properties. The melt pool equations are then combined with defect criteria to provide a quick approximation of the PV processing maps for a variety of materials. Finally, the predictions of these processing maps are compared with experimental data from the literature. The predictive processing maps can be computed quickly and can be coupled with dimensionless numbers and high-throughput (HT) experiments for validation. The present work provides a boundary framework for designing the optimal processing parameters for new metals and alloys based on existing analytical solutions.     

A new signal processing-based islanding detection method using pyramidal algorithm with undecimated wavelet transform for distributed generators of hydrogen energy

Machine learning-based fault detection methods are frequently combined with wavelet transform (WT) to detect an unintentional islanding condition. In contrast to this condition, these methods have long detection and computation time. Thus, selecting a useful signal processing-based approach is required for reliable islanding detection, especially in real-time applications. This paper presents a new modified signal processing-based islanding detection method (IDM) for real-time applications of hydrogen energy-based distributed generators. In the study, a new IDM using a modified pyramidal algorithm approach with an undecimated wavelet transform (UWT) is presented. The proposed method is performed with different grid conditions with the presence of electric noise in real-time. Experimental results show that oscillations in the acquired signal can be reduced by the UWT, and noise sensitivity is lower than other WT-based methods. The non-detection zone is zero and the maximum detection and computational time is also 75 ms at a close power match.     

Removing data and using metafounders alleviates biases for all traits in Lacaune dairy sheep predictions

Bias in dairy genetic evaluations, when it exists, has to be understood and properly addressed. The origin of biases is not always clear. We analyzed 40 yr of records from the Lacaune dairy sheep breeding program to evaluate the extent of bias, assess possible corrections, and emit hypotheses on its origin. The data set included 7 traits (milk yield, fat and protein contents, somatic cell score, teat angle, udder cleft, and udder depth) with records from 600,000 to 5 million depending on the trait, ～1,900,000 animals, and ～5,900 genotyped elite artificial insemination rams. For the ～8% animals with missing sire, we fit 25 unknown parent groups. We used the linear regression method to compare “partial” and “whole” predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with 7 cut-off points, and we obtained estimates of their bias, (over)dispersion, and accuracy in early proofs. We tried (1) several scenarios as follows: multiple or single trait, the “official” (routine) evaluation, which is a mixture of both single and multiple trait, and “deletion” of data before 1990; and (2) several models as follows: BLUP and single-step genomic (SSG)BLUP with fixed unknown parent groups or metafounders, where, for metafounders, their relationship matrix gamma was estimated using either a model for inbreeding trend, or base allele frequencies estimated by peeling. The estimate of gamma obtained by modeling the inbreeding trend resulted in an estimated increase of inbreeding, based on markers, faster than the pedigree-based one. The estimated genetic trends were similar for most models and scenarios across all traits, but were shrunken when gamma was estimated by peeling. This was due to shrinking of the estimates of metafounders in the latter case. Across scenarios, all traits showed bias, generally as an overestimate of genetic trend for milk yield and an underestimate for the other traits. As for the slope, it showed overdispersion of estimated breeding values for all traits. Using multiple-trait models slightly reduced the overestimate of genetic trend and the overdispersion, as did including genomic information (i.e., SSGBLUP) when the gamma matrix was estimated by the model for inbreeding trend. However, only deletion of historical data before 1990 resulted in elimination of both kind of biases. The SSGBLUP resulted in more accurate early proofs than BLUP for all traits. We considered that a snowball effect of small errors in each genetic evaluation, combined with selection, may have resulted in biased evaluations. Improving statistical methods reduced some bias but not all, and a simple solution for this data set was to remove historical records.     

基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测

光伏发电功率存在波动性,且光伏出力易受各种气象特征影响,传统TCN网络容易过度强化空间特性而弱化个体特性。针对上述问题,文中提出一种基于VMD和改进TCN的短期光伏发电功率预测模型。通过VMD将原始光伏发电功率时间序列分解为若干不同频率的模态分量,将各个模态分量以及相对应的气象数据输入至改进TCN网络进行建模学习。利用中心频率法确定VMD的最优分解模态分解个数。在传统TCN预测模型的基础上,使用DropBlock正则化取代Dropout正则化以达到抑制卷积层中信息协同的效果,并引入注意力机制自主挖掘并突出关键气象输入特征的影响,量化各气象因素对光伏发电的影响,从而提高预测精度。以江苏省某光伏电站真实数据为例进行仿真实验,结果表明所提预测方法的RMSE为0.62 MW,MAPE为2.03%。     

基于多媒体技术的思想政治教育课程资源整合系统

为解决资源种类划分结果异常,设计基于多媒体技术的思想政治教育课程资源整合系统。选用CYUSB3014芯片作为此次设计系统的主控芯片,并设定信息处理芯片以及外围电路。在此基础上,对思政课程信息进行分类,建立了课程资源库。优化资源整合模块,设定多媒体资源整合流程,并添加DataSet与.NET Framework数据处理程序,实现对多媒体数据的高效处理。构建系统测试环节显示,此系统资源种类划分结果较为合理且系统承载率较高。由此可知,此系统在应用中具有较高的综合性能。     

High quality 3D reconstruction based on fusion of polarization imaging and binocular stereo vision

Polarization imaging can retrieve inaccurate objects’ 3D shapes with fine textures, whereas coarse but accurate depths can be provided by binocular stereo vision. To take full advantage of these two complementary techniques, we investigate a novel 3D reconstruction method based on the fusion of polarization imaging and binocular stereo vision for high quality 3D reconstruction. We first generate the polarization surface by correcting the azimuth angle errors on the basis of registered binocular depth, to solve the azimuthal ambiguity in the polarization imaging. Then we propose a joint 3D reconstruction model for depth fusion, including a data fitting term and a robust low-rank matrix factorization constraint. The former is to transfer textures from the polarization surface to the fused depth by assuming their relationship linear, whereas the latter is to utilize the low-frequency part of binocular depth to improve the accuracy of the fused depth considering the influences of missing-entries and outliers. To solve the optimization problem in the proposed model, we adopt an efficient solution based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. Extensive experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in comparison with state-of-the-art methods and to exhibit its wide application prospects in 3D reconstruction.     

Tabular data: Deep learning is not all you need

A key element in solving real-life data science problems is selecting the types of models to use. Tree ensemble models (such as XGBoost) are usually recommended for classification and regression problems with tabular data. However, several deep learning models for tabular data have recently been proposed, claiming to outperform XGBoost for some use cases. This paper explores whether these deep models should be a recommended option for tabular data by rigorously comparing the new deep models to XGBoost on various datasets. In addition to systematically comparing their performance, we consider the tuning and computation they require. Our study shows that XGBoost outperforms these deep models across the datasets, including the datasets used in the papers that proposed the deep models. We also demonstrate that XGBoost requires much less tuning. On the positive side, we show that an ensemble of deep models and XGBoost performs better on these datasets than XGBoost alone.     

Data fusion and transfer learning empowered granular trust evaluation for Internet of Things

In the Internet of Things (IoT), a huge amount of valuable data is generated by various IoT applications. As the IoT technologies become more complex, the attack methods are more diversified and can cause serious damages. Thus, establishing a secure IoT network based on user trust evaluation to defend against security threats and ensure the reliability of data source of collected data have become urgent issues, in this paper, a Data Fusion and transfer learning empowered granular Trust Evaluation mechanism (DFTE) is proposed to address the above challenges. Specifically, to meet the granularity demands of trust evaluation, time–space empowered fine/coarse grained trust evaluation models are built utilizing deep transfer learning algorithms based on data fusion. Moreover, to prevent privacy leakage and task sabotage, a dynamic reward and punishment mechanism is developed to encourage honest users by dynamically adjusting the scale of reward or punishment and accurately evaluating users’ trusts. The extensive experiments show that: (i) the proposed DFTE achieves high accuracy of trust evaluation under different granular demands through efficient data fusion; (ii) DFTE performs excellently in participation rate and data reliability.